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AVO/USGS Volcanic Activity Notice

Volcano: Pavlof (VNUM #312030)

Current Volcano Alert Level: NORMAL
Previous Volcano Alert Level: ADVISORY

Current Aviation Color Code: GREEN
Previous Aviation Color Code: YELLOW

Issued: Thursday, January 19, 2023, 11:51 AM AKST
Source: Alaska Volcano Observatory
Notice Number: 2023/A84
Location: N 55 deg 25 min W 161 deg 53 min
Elevation: 8261 ft (2518 m)
Area: Alaska Peninsula

Volcanic Activity Summary:

Eruptive activity at Pavlof Volcano has stopped. Seismicity has decreased to background levels, and no explosions have been detected since December 11, 2022. Weakly elevated surface temperatures and minor steaming from the recently active vent continue to be observed intermittently in satellite and web camera imagery, consistent with cooling of previously erupted lava. Due to the decrease in activity to background levels, we are lowering the Aviation Color Code to Green and the Volcano Alert Level to Normal.

Previous eruptions of Pavlof indicate that the level of unrest can change quickly and eruptive activity could resume with little or no warning. Pavlof is monitored by local seismic and infrasound sensors, satellite data, web cameras, and regional infrasound and lightning networks.

Recent Observations:
[Volcanic cloud height] None
[Other volcanic cloud information] None
[Lava flow/dome] None
[Lava flow] None

Hazard Analysis:
[Ash cloud] None observed

Remarks:

Pavlof Volcano is a snow- and ice-covered stratovolcano located on the southwestern end of the Alaska Peninsula about 953 km (592 mi) southwest of Anchorage. The volcano is about 7 km (4.4 mi) in diameter and has active vents on the north and east sides close to the summit. With over 40 historic eruptions, it is one of the most consistently active volcanoes in the Aleutian arc. Eruptive activity is generally characterized by sporadic Strombolian lava fountaining continuing for a several-month period. Ash plumes as high as 49,000 ft ASL have been generated by past eruptions of Pavlof, and during the March 2016 eruption, ash plumes as high as 40,000 feet above sea level were generated and the ash was tracked in satellite data as distant as eastern Canada. The nearest community, Cold Bay, is located 60 km (37 miles) to the southwest of Pavlof.

Contacts:

Michelle Coombs, Scientist-in-Charge, USGS mcoombs@usgs.gov (907) 786-7497

David Fee, Coordinating Scientist, UAFGI dfee1@alaska.edu (907) 378-5460

The Alaska Volcano Observatory is a cooperative program of the U.S. Geological Survey, the University of Alaska Fairbanks Geophysical Institute, and the Alaska Division of Geological and Geophysical Surveys.

VOLCANO ALERT LEVELS

NORMAL
Volcano is in typical background, noneruptive state or, after a change from a higher level, volcanic activity has ceased and volcano has returned to noneruptive background state.

ADVISORY
Volcano is exhibiting signs of elevated unrest above known background level or, after a change from a higher level, volcanic activity has decreased significantly but continues to be closely monitored for possible renewed increase.

WATCH
Volcano is exhibiting heightened or escalating unrest with increased potential of eruption, timeframe uncertain, OR eruption is underway but poses limited hazards.

WARNING
Hazardous eruption is imminent, underway, or suspected.

AVIATION COLOR CODES

GREEN
Volcano is in typical background, noneruptive state or, after a change from a higher level, volcanic activity has ceased and volcano has returned to noneruptive background state.

YELLOW
Volcano is exhibiting signs of elevated unrest above known background level or, after a change from a higher level, volcanic activity has decreased significantly but continues to be closely monitored for possible renewed increase.

ORANGE
Volcano is exhibiting heightened or escalating unrest with increased potential of eruption, timeframe uncertain, OR eruption is underway with no or minor volcanic-ash emissions [ash-plume height specified, if possible].

RED
Eruption is imminent with significant emission of volcanic ash into the atmosphere likely OR eruption is underway or suspected with significant emission of volcanic ash into the atmosphere [ash-plume height specified, if possible].