Mathematical models developed by the USGS forecast various aspects of how a volcanic ash plume will interact with wind—where, how high, and how fast ash particles will be transported in the atmosphere, as well as where ash will fall out and accumulate on the ground. AVO runs these models when a volcano is restless by assuming a reasonable hypothetical eruption, to provide a pre-eruptive forecast of areas likely to be affected. During an ongoing eruption, AVO will update the forecast with actual observations (eruption start time and duration, plume height) as they become available. Click on individual graphics to learn more.

THESE PRODUCTS MAY NOT BE CURRENT.
During an actual eruption, see National Weather Service forecasts of airborne ash hazard to aircraft (SIGMETS: https://weather.gov/aawu/ and Volcanic Ash Advisories: https://weather.gov/vaac) as well as forecasts of ash fall: https://weather.gov/afc.

Bogoslof index map

Bogoslof change, 12/22

26 Dec (akst) eruption

Bogoslof change, 12/25

12/20 eruption, by Paul Tuvman

1998 vs 10 jan

18 jan shoreline changes

18 Jan plume

Bogoslof change, 01/24

Bogoslof change, 01/24

Unalaska ashfall 31 Jan via Andy Dietrick

Bogoslof index map, zoomed view